Timing your Singapore PR or Citizenship submission to gain an edge.

Getting approved for Singapore Permanent Residency (PR) or Citizenship (SC) is notoriously hard with numerous stories of multiple failed attempts over many years. One reason for this is that the yearly approvals have moved to about an average of about 30,000 for PRs and 20,000 for SCs due to the Singapore government moving to a more restrictive and controlled immigration framework in late 2009. We are expecting these approvals to increase by around 1% on average per year as the population grows.

Chart 1: ICA approvals of Singapore PRs and Citizens

Source: Singapore Immigration and Checkpoints Authority

Based on the latest data in Jun 2023[i], there is a pool of around 540,000 of PRs that could, taken to the extreme, apply to be citizens. However, since not all PRs want to be citizens and only some may make the decision to apply, we think the amount of new applications each year is perhaps 60,000 to 100,000 each year. For PRs, there are around 662,000[ii] of non-residents are eligible to be PRs. From this eligibility pool we think maybe 80,000 to 120,000 will apply for PR each year. This means the path to Singapore residency is a highly competitive one. Given this backdrop, applicants need to find any kind of edge they can to get ahead. We think one of these edges comes from timing your submission to periods when there will be potentially be less competition with fewer submissions in those periods.

Using Google search trends of “Singapore PR applications” and “Singapore citizenship applications” as a proxy for lagged submissions we can make some judgements on when best to submit your application. Before continuing, we would like to note that we have made the assumption that final submissions will on average happen 1 month after the search of these keywords are done as people will still need to collate the appropriate documents before submitting to the ICA. 

The best periods to submit your application

Using the latest 10 years of data from Google we find that the last two months of the year and January looks like a better period to submit applications for Singapore PR applications as the median total of searches bottom out in December. In contrast the most competitive periods and least favourable periods looks to be around March and June. Please remember we have used a 1 month lag to make the conclusion e.g. if searches peak in February each year then 1 month later, in March, people will submit their applications.

Chart 2: Monthly Google searches for “Singapore PR applications” from 2013 to 2023

Source: Google

Again, using the last 10 years of data from Google, we think the best time to make submissions for Singapore citizenship applications is during May, Jun, Nov, and January. Whereas, the least favourable months for submissions are potentially around April, October and December.

Chart 3: Monthly Google searches for “Singapore citizenship applications” from 2013 to 2023

Source: Google

However, we would caveat that due to wide variability in the data in some months, or in geek speak the distribution is not normally distributed, our confidence level in making these conclusions during these months are weaker. We have shown this variability in the chart below with data points for each year plotted for each month along with the averages and medians. These months include the October, November, January, February, April and March as the difference between the average and median is quite large, implying a less normal or skewed distribution of data points. Therefore, assuming a 1 month lag for submissions then we are less confident about our conclusions for November, December, February, May and April. Similar adjustments to our conclusions to PR applications also need to be made.

Chart 4: Detailed monthly Google searches for “Singapore citizenship applications” from 2013 to 2023

Source: Google

If you like to boost your chances of success using this edge and other methods please reach out to E&H Immigration Consultancy for a complimentary 60 minute 1 on 1 session with our expert consultants.

[i] See population-in-brief-2023.pdf

[ii] This is based on data from the Singapore Department of Statistics and Ministry of Manpower comprised of 194,700 of Employment Passes, 177,000 of S-Passes, 283,200 of Dependent Passes, and 7,100 of Student Passes. Note, we have assumed only 10% of all 71,000 Student Pass holders are eligible as they need to have studied in Singapore for at least 2 years, pass at least one national exam (PSLE and either GCE or an Integrated Programme).